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Keywords

religious giving, black swans, fat tails, cognitive biases

Abstract

In this paper, I augment the existing research on religious giving by examining the distribution of contributions within a statistical framework. I estimate what statistical distribution best describes the giving data and what it implies about the accuracy of the giving estimates. I propose that events based on counter-intuitive qualities of giving distributions and human cognitive biases in probability judgment can be labeled Black Swans, and could have played a role in financial embezzlement in churches.

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