In this paper, I augment the existing research on religious giving by examining the distribution of contributions within a statistical framework. I estimate what statistical distribution best describes the giving data and what it implies about the accuracy of the giving estimates. I propose that events based on counter-intuitive qualities of giving distributions and human cognitive biases in probability judgment can be labeled Black Swans, and could have played a role in financial embezzlement in churches.
"Black Swans in Churches: Tails and Biases in Religious Giving.,"
Journal of Religion and Business Ethics:
Vol. 2, Article 3.
Available at: http://via.library.depaul.edu/jrbe/vol2/iss1/3